02 / SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
更快不一定更划算
库存够用时，加急运费可能不值得；库存不足时，缺货损失可能超过运费节省。试着把融资上限改为 US$129,000、最晚可用日设为第 15 天：满足条件的最低成本方案会变化。再把期限改为第 12 天：没有方案同时满足两个限制。
方案可订舱性、优先服务容量及替代港口通关条件均未验证。27 组敏感性情景是确定性比较，不是预测概率。
HARBORSHIELD / v0.4 / PUBLIC-EVENT CASE
港口延误，如何影响一笔订单的现金流？
Singapore 2024 · 补货、营运资金与贸易单证完整性
从公开港口事件出发，比较省运费、避免缺货与减少资金占用之间的取舍。调整下面的假设，结果会在你的浏览器中重新计算。
真实的是公开事件；订单、运费、保费、利率、融资上限及备选服务均为构造示例。这里没有真实客户交易、企业部署、银行授信或实际节省金额。
01 / INTERACTIVE BUSINESS CASE
先判断是否满足条件，再比较经济负担
构造订单：5,000 件，采购 US$30/件，销售 US$42/件。发运前 7 天支付 30% 订金，发运当天支付尾款及物流费。其余固定输入可在结果 JSON 中查看。
这些是假设筛选条件，不是已获授信或交货承诺。峰值资金缺口已扣除自有现金。零是严格上限；融资上限或最晚可用日留空表示不应用该限制。净经济贡献下限必填，最低为零。
表中为默认假设计算快照；需要 JavaScript 才能交互。
仅在满足假设条件的方案中筛选；实际融资及订舱仍需业务核实。
满足条件的方案中最低经济负担假设优先海运服务
物流＋利息＋缺货机会成本US$5,972.65
所选方案峰值资金缺口US$130,200.00
| 构造方案 | 可用日（发运=0） | 物流现金成本 | 缺货机会成本 | 资金利息 | 经济负担 | 净经济贡献 | 条件筛选结果 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 假设优先海运服务 | 12.00 | US$5,200.00 | US$0.00 | US$772.65 | US$5,972.65 | US$54,027.35 | 满足全部假设条件 |
| 假设替代港口＋公路 | 12.12 | US$6,400.00 | US$300.00 | US$783.08 | US$7,483.08 | US$52,516.92 | 满足全部假设条件 |
| 标准海运服务 | 14.50 | US$3,600.00 | US$6,000.00 | US$833.99 | US$10,433.99 | US$49,566.01 | 满足全部假设条件 |
缺货机会成本是未满足的到货前需求所损失的毛利，不是第二笔现金支出。该简化模型假设补货订单最终全部售出；没有再叠加每天延误费。净经济贡献不是经审计的会计利润。
查看当前 JSON 结果（也可复制保存）
查看资金缺口从何时开始
| 相对发运日 | 现金事件 | 净现金变动 | 含自有资金的余额 | 所需外部融资 |
|---|
03 / FINANCE & BUSINESS
利润和现金不是一回事
订单有预计毛利，也可能在回款前需要融资。现金事件表展示时间差；利息按负现金余额的持续时间计算。即使某方案成本最低，只要超出资金或时间限制，或未达到贡献下限，也不会被推荐。
利率不是贷款报价；模型不含银行审批、汇率、税费、复利及公司其他现金流。计算截止到客户回款，剩余债务及其后续利息不在范围内。
04 / TRADE-DOCUMENT INTEGRITY
单证一致，不等于交易已被证明
本地应用会从当前构造订单生成发票、装箱单和投保申请 JSON，检查一致性，再用临时演示密钥签署这份已检查的资料。签名上下文包含订单假设、输入摘要及筛选结论。上传资料无效时会阻止签署，不会偷偷替换成默认订单。
下表是人为构造测试的静态快照，不是网页实时上传功能，也不代表真实单据识别准确率。系统不做 OCR。输入摘要只能绑定内容，不能证明计算或上传交易信息真实。
| 构造测试 | 预期一致 | 实际一致 | 规则提示 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 原始构造资料 | true | true | 未发现规则差异 |
| 修改发票总额 | false | false | INVOICE_ARITHMETIC, CARGO_VALUE_MISMATCH |
| 不同订单编号 | false | false | CROSS_DOCUMENT_MISMATCH |
| 币种不一致 | false | false | CROSS_DOCUMENT_MISMATCH |
| 投保金额与倍数不一致 | false | false | INSURED_VALUE_MISMATCH |
| 发运日超出申请保障窗口 | false | false | DEPARTURE_OUTSIDE_COVER_WINDOW |
| 装箱数量不一致 | false | false | SKU_QUANTITY_MISMATCH |
| 缺少单价 | false | false | INVALID_NUMBER |
篡改内容与替换密钥，是两种不同的问题
| 签名测试 | 签名数学上有效 | 符合单独提供的原始密钥 | 真实交易已验证 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 原始签名 | true | true | false |
| 签署后篡改金额 | false | false | false |
| 替换密钥并重新签署 | true | false | false |
使用 cryptography 的 Ed25519，私钥只在内存生成。有效签名不证明真实货物、保险保障、信用资格或法律货权。项目自定义格式不兼容 TradeTrust 或 W3C 凭证；未接入银行或区块链。
下载构造单证 JSON · 本地单证实验使用指南05 / PUBLIC SOURCES & ASSUMPTIONS
可核查的来源与明确边界
MPA response on extended waiting times, 30 May 2024
MPA linked off-schedule arrivals and vessel bunching to upstream disruptions and Cape of Good Hope diversions. Most container vessels berthed on arrival. Where schedule adjustment was infeasible, average waiting was about 2–3 days. January–April 2024 container throughput was 13.36 million TEU, up 8.8% year on year. Additional resources raised stated weekly handling capacity from 770,000 to 820,000 TEU.
This statement does not provide shipment-level arrival observations, a delay probability distribution, freight quotes or insurance rates. · 2026-10-04
TradeTrust Singapore–India trade-finance transaction, 25 August 2023
The documented physical shipment was scrap metal from Miami to Gujarat. DBS, ICICI Bank, traders and Maersk participated in a paperless eBL and letter-of-credit workflow with documentary checks and title transfers.
HarborShield has no access to those transaction documents and no bank, TradeTrust or eBL title-transfer integration. · 2026-10-04
展开全部假设与排除项
- The 140,000 USD external-funding limit, day-15 stock-availability deadline and zero minimum net contribution are constructed screening criteria, not confirmed credit or a contractual delivery commitment. Peak funding already deducts own cash. Null funding/deadline means not applied; zero is a binding limit. Cost ranking is retained even when no option is eligible.
- 2.5 days is a constructed affected-shipment scenario inspired by the reported 2–3-day wait; it is not the mean for all Singapore arrivals.
- 0 and 7 days are counterfactual sensitivity settings, not reported shipment observations.
- Every service option, freight amount, premium, interest rate, demand and document-release time is hypothetical. Priority capacity and alternate-port customs feasibility are unverified.
- The entire replenishment order is eventually sold, with one simplified receipt after availability plus the payment term. Existing-stock sales and other business cash flows are excluded.
- Pre-arrival unmet demand is lost rather than backordered. Its lost unit contribution is an opportunity cost, not a second cash payment or a reduction of this order's assumed sales receipt.
- Simple interest on negative incremental cash balance is calculated only until customer collection. No credit approval, taxes, FX, compound interest or future residual-debt repayment is modelled.
- This deterministic case is separate from the uncalibrated v0.2 stochastic insurance model; no daily-delay charge is added again.