{ "case_id": "SG-2024-PORT-DELAY", "version": "0.4", "data_status": "Constructed decision analysis, not observed savings or a financing offer", "inputs": { "case_id": "SG-2024-PORT-DELAY", "version": "0.4", "title": "Singapore 2024 port delay: a constructed SME replenishment decision", "data_status": "Public event context; all orders, prices, rates and option timings are constructed assumptions.", "sources": [ { "id": "mpa_20240530", "title": "MPA response on extended waiting times, 30 May 2024", "url": "https://www.mpa.gov.sg/media-centre/details/in-response-to-media-queries-on--vessels--extended-waiting-times-for-berths-in-the-port-of-singapore", "published": "2024-05-30", "accessed": "2026-10-04", "facts": [ "MPA linked off-schedule arrivals and vessel bunching to upstream disruptions and Cape of Good Hope diversions.", "Most container vessels berthed on arrival. Where schedule adjustment was infeasible, average waiting was about 2–3 days.", "January–April 2024 container throughput was 13.36 million TEU, up 8.8% year on year.", "Additional resources raised stated weekly handling capacity from 770,000 to 820,000 TEU." ], "not_supported": "This statement does not provide shipment-level arrival observations, a delay probability distribution, freight quotes or insurance rates." }, { "id": "tradetrust_20230825", "title": "TradeTrust Singapore–India trade-finance transaction, 25 August 2023", "url": "https://www.tradetrust.io/happenings-and-resources/press-release-singapore-india-kick-off-interoperable-ebills-of-lading-for-trade-finance/", "published": "2023-08-25", "accessed": "2026-10-04", "facts": [ "The documented physical shipment was scrap metal from Miami to Gujarat.", "DBS, ICICI Bank, traders and Maersk participated in a paperless eBL and letter-of-credit workflow with documentary checks and title transfers." ], "not_supported": "HarborShield has no access to those transaction documents and no bank, TradeTrust or eBL title-transfer integration." } ], "order": { "order_id": "DEMO-SG-001", "currency": "USD", "quantity": 5000, "unit_purchase_price": 30, "unit_sale_price": 42, "daily_demand": 200, "stock_cover_days": 12, "supplier_deposit_fraction": 0.3, "supplier_deposit_day": -7, "customer_payment_days": 14, "initial_cash": 25000, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08 }, "selected_port_delay_days": 2.5, "constraints": { "funding_limit": 140000, "latest_availability_day": 15, "minimum_net_contribution": 0 }, "document_terms": { "departure_date": "2024-05-20", "cover_start": "2024-05-19", "cover_end": "2024-06-30", "valuation_multiplier": 1.1 }, "options": [ { "id": "standard_sea", "name": "Standard sea service", "transit_days": 11, "port_delay_multiplier": 1, "document_release_days": 1, "freight_cost": 3200, "insurance_premium": 400, "other_logistics_cost": 0 }, { "id": "priority_sea", "name": "Hypothetical priority service", "transit_days": 9, "port_delay_multiplier": 1, "document_release_days": 0.5, "freight_cost": 4800, "insurance_premium": 400, "other_logistics_cost": 0 }, { "id": "sea_road", "name": "Hypothetical alternate-port + road", "transit_days": 10, "port_delay_multiplier": 0.25, "document_release_days": 1.5, "freight_cost": 5900, "insurance_premium": 500, "other_logistics_cost": 0 } ], "assumptions": [ "The 140,000 USD external-funding limit, day-15 stock-availability deadline and zero minimum net contribution are constructed screening criteria, not confirmed credit or a contractual delivery commitment. Peak funding already deducts own cash. Null funding/deadline means not applied; zero is a binding limit. Cost ranking is retained even when no option is eligible.", "2.5 days is a constructed affected-shipment scenario inspired by the reported 2–3-day wait; it is not the mean for all Singapore arrivals.", "0 and 7 days are counterfactual sensitivity settings, not reported shipment observations.", "Every service option, freight amount, premium, interest rate, demand and document-release time is hypothetical. Priority capacity and alternate-port customs feasibility are unverified.", "The entire replenishment order is eventually sold, with one simplified receipt after availability plus the payment term. Existing-stock sales and other business cash flows are excluded.", "Pre-arrival unmet demand is lost rather than backordered. Its lost unit contribution is an opportunity cost, not a second cash payment or a reduction of this order's assumed sales receipt.", "Simple interest on negative incremental cash balance is calculated only until customer collection. No credit approval, taxes, FX, compound interest or future residual-debt repayment is modelled.", "This deterministic case is separate from the uncalibrated v0.2 stochastic insurance model; no daily-delay charge is added again." ] }, "selected_comparison": [ { "option_id": "priority_sea", "option": "Hypothetical priority service", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 12.0, "collection_day": 26.0, "stockout_days": 0.0, "unmet_units": 0.0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 5200, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 0.0, "economic_burden": 5972.646575342465, "net_economic_contribution": 54027.35342465754, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -110200.0, "cash_balance": -130200.0, "funding_need": 130200.0 }, { "day": 26.0, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 79800.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3525200.0, "funding_cost": 772.6465753424658, "peak_funding_need": 130200.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 79800.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true }, { "option_id": "sea_road", "option": "Hypothetical alternate-port + road", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 12.125, "collection_day": 26.125, "stockout_days": 0.125, "unmet_units": 25.0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 6400, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 300.0, "economic_burden": 7483.084931506849, "net_economic_contribution": 52516.91506849315, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -111400.0, "cash_balance": -131400.0, "funding_need": 131400.0 }, { "day": 26.125, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 78600.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3572825.0, "funding_cost": 783.0849315068493, "peak_funding_need": 131400.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 78600.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true }, { "option_id": "standard_sea", "option": "Standard sea service", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 14.5, "collection_day": 28.5, "stockout_days": 2.5, "unmet_units": 500.0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 3600, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 6000.0, "economic_burden": 10433.994520547945, "net_economic_contribution": 49566.005479452055, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -108600.0, "cash_balance": -128600.0, "funding_need": 128600.0 }, { "day": 28.5, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 81400.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3805100.0, "funding_cost": 833.9945205479452, "peak_funding_need": 128600.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 81400.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true } ], "selected_decision": { "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, "no_port_delay_comparison": [ { "option_id": "standard_sea", "option": "Standard sea service", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 12, "collection_day": 26, "stockout_days": 0, "unmet_units": 0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 3600, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 0, "economic_burden": 4363.528767123287, "net_economic_contribution": 55636.47123287671, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -108600.0, "cash_balance": -128600.0, "funding_need": 128600.0 }, { "day": 26.0, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 81400.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3483600.0, "funding_cost": 763.5287671232877, "peak_funding_need": 128600.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 81400.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true }, { "option_id": "priority_sea", "option": "Hypothetical priority service", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 9.5, "collection_day": 23.5, "stockout_days": 0, "unmet_units": 0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 5200, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 0, "economic_burden": 5901.304109589041, "net_economic_contribution": 54098.695890410956, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -110200.0, "cash_balance": -130200.0, "funding_need": 130200.0 }, { "day": 23.5, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 79800.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3199700.0, "funding_cost": 701.3041095890411, "peak_funding_need": 130200.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 79800.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true }, { "option_id": "sea_road", "option": "Hypothetical alternate-port + road", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 11.5, "collection_day": 25.5, "stockout_days": 0, "unmet_units": 0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 6400, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 0, "economic_burden": 7165.084931506849, "net_economic_contribution": 52834.91506849315, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -111400.0, "cash_balance": -131400.0, "funding_need": 131400.0 }, { "day": 25.5, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 78600.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3490700.0, "funding_cost": 765.0849315068493, "peak_funding_need": 131400.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 78600.0, "residual_funding_need": 0.0, "constraint_feasible": true, "economically_acceptable": true, "ineligibility_reasons": [], "eligible": true } ], "sensitivity": [ { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 9062.98904109589, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 3886.3232876712327, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 3886.3232876712327, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 9501.30410958904, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 4363.528767123287, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 4363.528767123287, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 10114.945205479453, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5031.6164383561645, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 0, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5031.6164383561645, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 15089.742465753425, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5489.742465753425, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 3912.7479452054795, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 15572.646575342465, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5972.646575342465, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 4433.994520547945, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 16248.712328767124, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 6648.712328767124, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "priority_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 2.5, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "standard_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5163.739726027397, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "standard_sea", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "standard_sea", "eligible_option_count": 3 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 19305.806849315068, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 9705.806849315068, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.03, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 5537.898630136986, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 19815.48493150685, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 10215.48493150685, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.08, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 6101.06301369863, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 8, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 20529.034246575342, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 12, "lowest_burden_option": "sea_road", "minimum_economic_burden": 10929.034246575342, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "sea_road", "eligible_option_count": 1 }, { "port_delay_days": 7, "annual_funding_rate": 0.15, "stock_cover_days": 18, "lowest_burden_option": "priority_sea", "minimum_economic_burden": 6889.493150684932, "status": "eligible_option_found", "recommended_option_id": "sea_road", "unconstrained_lowest_burden_option_id": "priority_sea", "eligible_option_count": 1 } ], "constraint_examples": [ { "constraints": { "funding_limit": 129000, "latest_availability_day": 15, "minimum_net_contribution": 0 }, "comparison": [ { "option_id": "priority_sea", "option": "Hypothetical priority service", "currency": "USD", "availability_day": 12.0, "collection_day": 26.0, "stockout_days": 0.0, "unmet_units": 0.0, "purchase_value": 150000, "sales_receipt": 210000, "planned_contribution": 60000, "logistics_cost": 5200, "stockout_opportunity_cost": 0.0, "economic_burden": 5972.646575342465, "net_economic_contribution": 54027.35342465754, "events": [ { "day": -7.0, "event": "Supplier deposit", "net_flow": -45000.0, "cash_balance": -20000.0, "funding_need": 20000.0 }, { "day": 0.0, "event": "Supplier balance; Logistics paid", "net_flow": -110200.0, "cash_balance": -130200.0, "funding_need": 130200.0 }, { "day": 26.0, "event": "Constructed customer receipt", "net_flow": 210000.0, "cash_balance": 79800.0, "funding_need": 0.0 } ], "funding_dollar_days": 3525200.0, "funding_cost": 772.6465753424658, "peak_funding_need": 130200.0, "closing_cash_before_interest": 79800.0, 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{ "test_case": "Invoice total altered", "expected_consistent": false, "observed_consistent": false, "matches_fixture_expectation": true, "issue_codes": [ "INVOICE_ARITHMETIC", "CARGO_VALUE_MISMATCH" ] }, { "test_case": "Different order identifier", "expected_consistent": false, "observed_consistent": false, "matches_fixture_expectation": true, "issue_codes": [ "CROSS_DOCUMENT_MISMATCH" ] }, { "test_case": "Currency mismatch", "expected_consistent": false, "observed_consistent": false, "matches_fixture_expectation": true, "issue_codes": [ "CROSS_DOCUMENT_MISMATCH" ] }, { "test_case": "Requested value inconsistent with multiplier", "expected_consistent": false, "observed_consistent": false, "matches_fixture_expectation": true, "issue_codes": [ "INSURED_VALUE_MISMATCH" ] }, { "test_case": "Departure outside requested window", "expected_consistent": false, "observed_consistent": false, "matches_fixture_expectation": true, "issue_codes": [ "DEPARTURE_OUTSIDE_COVER_WINDOW" ] }, { 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