{
  "version": "0.5",
  "task": "One-day-ahead Singapore container-ship port-call forecasting",
  "unit": "AIS-derived container-ship port calls per UTC day; not unique vessels or TEU",
  "source": {
    "dataset": "https://portwatch.imf.org/datasets/83b1bbc7b3354c5fb1f40673bb8f852e/about",
    "attribution": "Sources: UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org).",
    "terms": "https://www.imf.org/en/about/copyright-and-terms",
    "retrieved_at_utc": "2026-10-04T14:34:46+00:00",
    "snapshot_sha256": "3238a37352ae993c4cb4e44848268aab621978f835a74ef1528e8e2e073f0985",
    "portid": "port1201"
  },
  "quality": {
    "rows": 1096,
    "start": "2022-01-01",
    "end": "2024-12-31",
    "missing_dates": 0,
    "duplicate_dates": 0,
    "invalid_counts": 0,
    "zero_count_days": 0,
    "source_hashes_verified": true
  },
  "splits": {
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      "start": "2022-01-01",
      "end": "2022-12-31",
      "n": 365
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    "validation": {
      "start": "2023-01-01",
      "end": "2023-12-31",
      "n": 365
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    "test": {
      "start": "2024-01-01",
      "end": "2024-12-31",
      "n": 366
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  },
  "protocol": "Choose by 2023 validation MAE. Refit ridge on 2022–2023 only; freeze coefficients. Each 2024 forecast uses observed earlier days, not the current or future target. This is rolling one-day-ahead evaluation, not a year-ahead forecast. Historical records downloaded later may be revised; this is not an as-of-2024 vintage backtest.",
  "selected_method": "mean_28",
  "method_names": {
    "yesterday": "Yesterday's observed count",
    "last_week": "Same weekday last week",
    "mean_28": "Previous 28-day mean",
    "weekday_4": "Same weekday, previous four weeks",
    "ridge_ar": "Ridge autoregression (fixed penalty 10)"
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    {
      "date": "2024-12-31",
      "actual": 35,
      "predicted": 38.75,
      "yesterday": 42.0
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Port calls are AIS-derived indicators, not observed port waiting times, cargo delays or losses.",
    "No observed invoices, carrier quotations, claims, premiums or funding costs are available.",
    "No causal congestion effect, calibrated insurance price or realised operational savings is established.",
    "One port, one held-out year and a later-retrieved data vintage; external generalisation is untested.",
    "No automatic mapping from predicted calls to the constructed order's port-delay assumption.",
    "AI-assisted implementation; personal learning and independent replication remain to be documented."
  ]
}